New Seat Details - Kingston upon Hull North

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Kingston upon Hull North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	25,963	62.1%
CON	10,886	26.0%
LIB	2,229	5.3%
UKIP	1,790	4.3%
Green	706	1.7%
MIN	211	0.5%
OTH	7	0.0%
LAB Majority	15,077	36.1%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Kingston upon Hull North: Map

List of old seats forming part of Kingston upon Hull North

Old seat: Hull North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hull North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hull North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Kingston Upon Hull	Avenue	8,525	Kingston upon Hull North	1,345	3,116	413	204	134	0	0	0	5,212
Kingston Upon Hull	Beverley	6,321	Kingston upon Hull North	977	1,876	267	162	63	0	0	0	3,345
Kingston Upon Hull	Bransholme East	6,875	Kingston upon Hull North	761	2,968	100	175	52	0	0	0	4,056
Kingston Upon Hull	Bransholme West	5,921	Kingston upon Hull North	575	2,383	89	144	37	0	0	0	3,228
Kingston Upon Hull	Bricknell	6,221	Kingston upon Hull North	1,364	1,522	146	127	59	0	0	0	3,218
Kingston Upon Hull	Kings Park	8,700	Kingston upon Hull North	1,222	2,184	239	171	50	0	0	0	3,866
Kingston Upon Hull	Newland	5,455	Kingston upon Hull North	1,250	2,890	318	206	107	0	0	0	4,771
Kingston Upon Hull	Orchard Park and Greenwood	8,834	Kingston upon Hull North	893	4,095	107	235	63	0	0	0	5,393
Kingston Upon Hull	University	6,260	Kingston upon Hull North	975	2,650	189	178	79	0	0	0	4,071
	Total	63,112		9,362	23,684	1,868	1,602	644	0	0	0	37,160

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hull North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hull West and Hessle

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hull West and Hessle, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hull West and Hessle				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Riding of Yorkshire	Hessle	10,943	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	2,489	2,588	497	245	33	0	266	9	6,127
Kingston Upon Hull	Boothferry	9,463	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	1,597	2,407	421	207	68	0	216	8	4,924
Kingston Upon Hull	Derringham	8,746	Kingston upon Hull North	1,524	2,279	361	188	62	0	211	7	4,632
Kingston Upon Hull	Myton	8,292	Kingston upon Hull East	1,405	3,924	254	240	46	0	516	18	6,403
Kingston Upon Hull	Newington	7,426	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	1,121	2,759	191	185	57	0	189	7	4,509
Kingston Upon Hull	Pickering	8,725	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	1,427	2,411	357	197	51	0	206	7	4,656
Kingston Upon Hull	St Andrew's	4,688	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	754	1,974	130	136	16	0	295	11	3,316
	Total	58,283		10,317	18,342	2,211	1,398	333	0	1,899	67	34,567

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hull West and Hessle seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Kingston upon Hull North

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Kingston upon Hull North
Kingston Upon Hull	Avenue	9,067	Hull North	1,345	3,116	413	204	134	0	0	0	5,212
Kingston Upon Hull	Beverley	5,823	Hull North	977	1,876	267	162	63	0	0	0	3,345
Kingston Upon Hull	Bransholme East	7,060	Hull North	761	2,968	100	175	52	0	0	0	4,056
Kingston Upon Hull	Bransholme West	5,617	Hull North	575	2,383	89	144	37	0	0	0	3,228
Kingston Upon Hull	Bricknell	5,601	Hull North	1,364	1,522	146	127	59	0	0	0	3,218
Kingston Upon Hull	Derringham	8,065	Hull West and Hessle	1,524	2,279	361	188	62	0	211	7	4,632
Kingston Upon Hull	Kings Park	6,726	Hull North	1,222	2,184	239	171	50	0	0	0	3,866
Kingston Upon Hull	Newland	8,304	Hull North	1,250	2,890	318	206	107	0	0	0	4,771
Kingston Upon Hull	Orchard Park and Greenwood	9,383	Hull North	893	4,095	107	235	63	0	0	0	5,393
Kingston Upon Hull	University	7,083	Hull North	975	2,650	189	178	79	0	0	0	4,071
	Total	72,729		10,886	25,963	2,229	1,790	706	0	211	7	41,792

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Kingston upon Hull North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Diana Johnson (LAB)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	72,729
Turnout:	57.5%

Kingston upon Hull North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Kingston upon Hull North: Overview

Introduction